ACUS03 KWNS 260725
SWODY3
SPC AC 260724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern
Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS while an upper
ridge remains in place across the Southwest on Thursday. Multiple
mid-level perturbations will rotate around the broader upper trough,
promoting enough lift to support thunderstorms across portions of
the Great Lakes. Multiple rounds of south-southeastward progressing thunderstorms are also likely across the southern Plains into the
Southeast along a frontal boundary through the day. Rich low-level
moisture and associated ample buoyancy will precede the southern
Plains storms during the afternoon, which may promote strong storm
potential given modest wind shear.

...Southern Plains...
An MCS may be ongoing across portions of the Southern Plains at the
start of the period, leaving an outflow boundary in its wake. South
of the outflow boundary, robust surface heating will take place,
supporting surface temperatures reaching 90 F amid low 70s F
dewpoints. Despite poor (i.e. 6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, the
rich low-level moisture may support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest
veering and strengthening of the flow with height will result in 35
kts of effective bulk shear. The development of multicells and/or
the southwestward back-building of an older MCS is anticipated by
mid to late afternoon, with strong thunderstorms possible. The main
uncertainty at this point is the placement and movement of the
outflow boundary, which will directly influence where any isolated
severe thunderstorms may occur. As such, Category 1/Marginal risk
probabilities have been withheld given placement uncertainties,
though severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.

..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025

$$

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