ACUS01 KWNS 260047
SWODY1
SPC AC 260045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central
Arizona for a few more hours this evening. Otherwise, the potential
for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental
U.S.

...Discussion...
A cluster of storms has produced some damaging winds across
south-central Arizona. As the boundary layer cools this evening,
expect these storms to weaken. However, the threat for isolated
damaging winds will persist for a few more hours amid 1000+ J/kg
DCAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates.

Elsewhere, diurnal thunderstorms across the western CONUS will wane
this evening. Additional storms are expected to develop from the TX
Panhandle to western Oklahoma tonight, but weak instability should
limit any severe weather potential from this activity.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260559
SWODY1
SPC AC 260557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper-level trough will be present across the eastern
CONUS today. At the surface, a cool, dry airmass and high pressure
will dominate most of the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm
potential. Widespread monsoonal thunderstorm activity will occur
across much of the western CONUS.

...Southern Arizona...
Weak instability is forecast across southern Arizona with sufficient
heating for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Mid-level flow
around 20 knots Tuesday morning will weaken slightly by the
afternoon. This belt of enhanced flow may provide enough shear for a
stronger multicell thunderstorm with an isolated damaging wind
threat. However, overall, expect storm organization to be limited
with mostly sub-severe convection due to weaker instability and
shear than Monday.

Given the number of storms across the western CONUS today, isolated
damaging wind gusts may be possible. However, a more organized
region/threat is not apparent.

..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251240
SWODY1
SPC AC 251238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central
Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the
potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the
continental U.S.

..Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the
eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the
northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward
through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic
coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will
exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains.
Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in
widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening.

...Southern Arizona...
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across
much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger
mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread
the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm
clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the
higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow
with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally
west-northwestward through the evening.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/25/2025

$$

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