ACUS02 KWNS 260556
SWODY2
SPC AC 260554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A few stronger storms are
possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S., with an
embedded impulse ejecting into the Atlantic as a second impulse
impinges on the Great Lakes. An upper ridge will persist over the
Southwest while a weak mid-level cut-off low meanders across the
Pacific Northwest. A surface high will become established east of
the MS River, with low-level moisture poised to pivot around the
surface high and advect northward across the Plains into the Great
Lakes region, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the High
Plains during the afternoon given lee surface troughing, with
elevated thunderstorms continuing into the central Plains overnight
within a warm-air advection regime. The best chance for any strong
storms would be over portions of the Colorado Front Range and the
Upper Midwest, where an overlap of marginally favorable shear and
instability may exist.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
The second impulse pivoting around the broader upper trough over the
Great Lakes will promote an organized round of thunderstorms within
a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Modest mid-level lapse rates
will overspread low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg of
thin MLCAPE across extreme eastern SD toward the MN/IA border.
Modest veering flow with height will encourage 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear as well. As such, a few strong storms with
sub-severe wind and hail are possible around afternoon peak heating.

...Colorado Front Range...
Upslope low-level flow across the central High Plains will support
60+ f surface dewpoints to advect northwestward toward the Colorado
Front Range. Here, increasing westerly flow with height will support
some speed shear, evident in forecast soundings as relatively
straight hodographs. Lapse rates are expected to be poor (i.e.
around 6.5 C/km), with MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg via thin
profiles. A few of the stronger storms may produce some wind and
hail, but these hazards are currently expected to remain generally
below severe limits.

..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025

$$

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